By Jessica Minnis-McClain 

“Imagine learning that is accessible, lifelong and prepares everyone for a global future.” This is the challenge presented in an update to the Lumina Foundation’s A Stronger Nation and Brighter Future report. Lumina is reimagining education attainment by developing a value goal for credentials and a framework that links education to economic return on investment.

By 2040, Lumina hopes that 75% of adults aged 25-64 will have college degrees or other credentials of value, aiming to increase post-high school attainment and ensuring that degrees or other credentials provide real value through economic gains.

This reimagining comes in response to questions regarding the affordability and value of a college education. Short term credentials and certifications address some of these concerns by providing a middle pathway between a high school diploma and traditional two- or four-year degrees. This middle pathway offers currency or value to individuals by shortening the time and reducing the expense associated with traditional degree programs, allowing individuals to quickly upskill or reskill for in-demand jobs.  

The return on investment, particularly in certain fields, may be significant and provides a cost-effective solution for both students and employers wanting to adapt to industry changes. However, not all workforce credentials provide equal return on investment.  That poses a challenge for states evaluating programs to fund and students who are weighing the cost and benefits of career paths.

Lumina’s Stronger Nation tool and the launch of Goal 2040 attempt to address the challenge of evaluating short-term credentials in terms of economic return on investment. According to Lumina’s methodology, post-high school credentials are comprised of two types -degrees (two- or four-year) and short-term credentials held by Americans ages 25-64 in the labor force ages and earning annual wages of 15% or higher than the national median wage for a high school graduate.

Currently, 44.1% of the national labor force have a post-high school credential and are earning at or above the wage benchmark, with 36.4% holding degrees and 7.7% earning short-term credentials. In Virginia, 49.2% of the workforce have a post-high school credential and are earning at/or above the wage benchmark, placing Virginia in 7^th place among national rankings.

Chart 1- State Credentials of Value

Source: Lumina Foundation

Innovative Strategies in Virginia

Virginia is proactively seeking ways to increase post-secondary attainment rates with both traditional degree programs and short-term credentials. The New Economy Workforce Credential Grant (WCG), a multi-tiered grant program, which funds noncredit workforce training is lauded as the nation’s first pay-for-performance model in the nation. Participating institutions offer enrollees a grant for two-thirds of program tuition, contingent on completion of the program training. The Commonwealth reimburses participating institutions for up to two-thirds of the total cost of program tuition after enrolled students meet certain benchmarks. Over the program’s first eight years, 74,490 students have completed training programs in high demand fields. Enrollment in the program continues to grow each year, with an all-time high of 15,753 students enrolled in 2024 and a 94% completion rate.

The success of the WCG was a driving influence for Virginia’s inclusion in a national collaborative learning program - the Noncredit Mobility Academy. Virginia's Noncredit Mobility Academy cohort is working to develop a taxonomy for noncredit education programs and to perform a landscape analysis of noncredit offerings in the Commonwealth. The SCHEV team is evaluating the range of noncredit education offerings at higher education institutions in Virginia to identify potential pathways from noncredit programs to credit-based education as part of a career trajectory. This innovative effort promises to become a model for funding noncredit courses/certificates in higher education.

The classification work initiated in the Noncredit Mobility Academy will continue in the EdValue Collaborative, a yearlong learning community that began in March 2025. SCHEV staff in the EdValue Collaborative plan to analyze how other states develop criteria for ranking the currency of a credential and its perceived value for stakeholders. Through this collaborative work, a shared understanding of value could develop across institutions and states creating a classification standard. Additionally, the collaborative will evaluate and propose updates to the program approval process for short-term credentials and certifications.

These collective efforts along with CNBC’s ranking of Virginia as the number one state for businesses seem to be showing early signs of success in attracting new and higher-paying industries to the Commonwealth. Those higher paying jobs are bringing new residents to Virginia. In 2023, Virginia realized its first year of net positive migration in a decade with 276,101 incoming residents and 253,240 outgoing. The largest influx of residents to Virginia are migrating from California (21,771), North Carolina (23,197), Florida (24,733) and Maryland (28,203).

Source: U.S. Census

Takeaways

With a global population cliff beginning to impact enrollment at many of the nation’s colleges and universities; changes in the demographic makeup of the U.S. population; and the growing influence of artificial intelligence; post-secondary education will need to pivot to meet these challenges. And although attainment rates across race and ethnicities are progressing, growth remains uneven, and disparities persist.

Particularly for at risk communities, reimagining post-secondary attainment, including workforce credentials and certifications, can be a starting point for bridging the attainment gap. In future reports, Lumina promises a broader scope for evaluating value and return on investment beyond financial benefits. As 2040 approaches, Virginia’s innovative programs and lessons learned in collaborations should help bridge the gap toward 75% attainment and, along with proactive policies, provide a brighter future for workers in the Commonwealth.